Pharma faces $500B risk as patents expire, with Merck most exposed by 2028

More than $500 billion in global prescription sales could be threatened by generic competition between 2026 and 2032, according to Norstella data cited by Evaluate.

Merck is the most immediately exposed, as its cancer immunotherapy Keytruda is set to lose patent protection in 2028. AbbVie’s risk will climb early in the next decade when its immunology drugs Rinvoq and Skyrizi expire, while Johnson & Johnson, Sanofi and AstraZeneca also anticipate meaningful pressure.

The loss of patent protection does not automatically erase revenue; factors such as market geography, timing of generic or biosimilar entry, and lifecycle-management strategies can slow erosion. The looming cliff has driven large drugmakers to pursue acquisitions and partnerships to bolster pipelines before their blockbusters face competition.