BMO sees Merck better positioned than BMS to handle looming patent cliffs

BMO Capital Markets says Merck has a stronger plan than Bristol Myers Squibb to replace revenue lost to upcoming patent expirations. The firm highlights Merck's pipeline as more derisked and sizable before its flagship immunotherapy loses exclusivity.

Merck faces the biggest single‑product hit with Keytruda, which could lose patent protection at the end of 2028, putting roughly $33 billion of revenue at risk. BMO notes that despite this challenge, Merck has introduced growth products that could offset the loss.

Bristol Myers Squibb, by contrast, is expected to struggle to fill the gap left by Opdivo and Eliquis as their patents expire. BMO is less confident in BMS's ability to replace that revenue stream.

The analyst team points to Merck's stock performance as evidence of market confidence, noting a 43 percent rise in the share price so far this year, making it the top gainer among large pharma stocks covered by BMO.