BMS faces steep risk if milvexian trial fails, could spark mega-cap merger frenzy

BMS is heading toward a readout for its oral FXIa inhibitor milvexian, a trial that analysts say could be pivotal for the company's future growth.

The recent collapse of merger talks with AstraZeneca removes a potential avenue for BMS to address its looming patent cliff, with roughly 80% of its revenue expected to face generic or biosimilar competition by 2031.

Raghuram Selvaraju of H.C. Wainwright warned that a failure of milvexian could trigger consolidation among weaker large‑cap drugmakers, sparking speculation that firms such as GSK and Pfizer might become takeover targets.

The outcome of the trial is therefore seen as a catalyst that could reshape merger activity across the Big Pharma landscape.