STAT+: Kalshi comes for biopharma, with prediction markets for clinical trials and FDA approvals

STAT PlusPharma Kalshi comes for biopharma, with prediction markets for clinical trials and FDA approvals Company touts an approach it believes can provide benefits and minimize risks to the field Manage alerts for this article Email this article Share this article By Elaine ChenJuly 16, 2026 Chen, a national biotech reporter, is the co-author of The Readout, a newsletter about the business, science, and politics of biotech. Elaine Chen[email protected]Elaine’s stories explore the boom in new obesity treatments, new drug payment models, the ways companies are affected by FDA changes, and the emerging psychedelics drug sector. She co-writes The Readout newsletter, and co-hosts STAT’s weekly biotech podcast, The Readout Loud. You can reach Elaine on Signal at elaineywchen.70. Prediction markets have permeated the worlds of sports, politics, and reality television shows. Now, the biopharma industry could be next. On Thursday, Kalshi, one of the world’s largest prediction market exchanges, said it will start taking bets on clinical trials and regulatory approvals.Advertisement It’s starting with a small number of markets chosen in collaboration with its partner, AppliedXL, a tech company that monitors and predicts the outcomes of clinical trials. STAT+ Exclusive Story Already have an account? Log in This article is exclusive to STAT+ subscribers Unlock this article — plus daily coverage and analysis of the pharma industry — by subscribing to STAT+. Already have an account? Log in Monthly $39 Totals $468 per year $39/month Get Started Totals $468 per year Starter $30 for 3 months, then $399/year $30 for 3 months Get Started Then $399/year Annual $399 Save 15% $399/year Get Started Save 15% 11+ Users Custom Savings start at 25%! Request A Quote Request A Quote Savings start at 25%! 2-10 Users $300 Annually per user $300/year Get Started $300 Annually per user View All Plans To read the rest of this story subscribe to STAT+. Subscribe Log In biotechnology, drug development, Pharmaceuticals, STAT+ Submit a correction requestReprints Elaine Chen National Biotech Reporter Elaine’s stories explore the boom in new obesity treatments, new drug payment models, the ways companies are affected by FDA changes, and the emerging psychedelics drug sector. She co-writes The Readout newsletter, and co-hosts STAT’s weekly biotech podcast, The Readout Loud. You can reach Elaine on Signal at elaineywchen.70. Newsletter Your morning rundown of the science, politics, and money driving biotech today Recommended Biotech July 16, 2026 STAT Plus: Eli Lilly to acquire psychedelics-focused biotech AtaiBeckley Adam's Biotech Scorecard July 16, 2026 STAT Plus: Amylyx nears pivotal endocrine drug study readout Advertisement First Opinion July 16, 2026 The growing fang-to-pharmacy pipeline The Readout July 15, 2026 STAT Plus: Celcuity’s breast cancer drug approved, its first Biotech July 15, 2026 STAT Plus: A new biotech startup tries to tackle obesity, but not in the way you might expect Subscriber Picks